FINSUM + Magnifi: Goldman Sachs Bullish on Commodities Market

(March 2021)

Jeffrey Currie, head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, said there is the beginning of a structural bull market in raw materials. The main reason behind this push is a variety of policies that are driving demand. The U.S. and Europe’s supply chains have been in a rut due to the pandemic, but governments are looking to change how they interact with the economy post-pandemic. The U.S. and China are looking to retool their supply chains in a variety of industries. This policy-focused push is creating micro-price pressures in industries. The supply can’t keep up currently, so as the dollar continues to weaken amid inflationary pressures commodities like oil offer an outlet to hedge the macro factors. Crude oil, copper, and Natural Gas are all up in 2021.
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FINSUM + Magnifi: Big Changes to Reg BI Likely Delayed by SEC

(March 2021)

One big anxiety that has been on every broker’s mind since mid-January is: is the SEC going to make Reg BI compliance tougher, or introduce something even worse? A lose-lose. Accordingly, there has been a lot of focus on what newly nominated SEC chief Gary Gensler might do to the rule. The Biden administration and the Democratic party have been quite vocal in their desire to replace the rule with a full fiduciary rule, but will that happen, and when? Well, the reality is that the meme stock craziness is likely one of the best things that could have happened to brokers. You may be asking why: because it likely just distracted the new leadership of the SEC for about a year. The meme stock frenzy has dominated headlines and become a Democratic cause, which means newly nominated SEC chief Gensler will likely be focusing on that immediately upon taking over. Bitcoin is another emerging issue given the huge run-up in prices and public focus. Reg BI is obviously very important, but may become second fiddle because of the other, more newsworthy issues.
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FINSUM + Magnifi: Why eSports and Gambling are a Great Buy Right Now

(March 2021)

Investors have had to recalibrate over the last couple of weeks as Reddit users and memes positioned themselves as players on the real-world financial stage. Related byproducts to the internet culture are growth in online gambling and Esports. In a tweet this week, the Citron research group suggested GameStop should purchase the Esports betting company Esports Entertainment Group Inc. (GMBL). Citron, which had been an advocate of short-selling GME early has switched its position and now thinks that the marriage of these two companies could provide investors a new opportunity. GMBL was up 18.9% after the tweet. Citron has placed a price target of $50 on GMBL and believes this acquisition is the hybrid play to turn GameStop into a one-stop-shop for all things video gaming. GME is in another frenzy of its own rallied on open Thursday despite the S&P 500 slipping yet again.
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FINSUM + Magnifi: Why Gold is Positioned for a Bull Run

(March 2021)

The price of gold has been in a slump after it reached all-time highs mid pandemic. A variety of micro and macro factors are melding to put this commodity in a major second rally. The macro factors are as present as ever. The Fed is still expanding its balance sheet to pump up inflation. On the Fiscal side, the Biden admin is pushing its $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Inflation is on every investor's mind as treasury yields rise and TIPS spreads see it right around the corner. This precious metal is the classic asset to hold as cash loses its value, but for those who don’t want to own the commodity directly a Canadian mining company Starr Peak Exploration (STRPF) is poised to rally. It has expanded nearby mining territory and investors see it as a value play in the next bull run. Berkshire Hathaway has positioned itself behind Barrick Gold this last summer.
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Toys

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While as adults we might have a strong sense of nostalgia about walking through a toy store lined with aisles of flashy boxes, from an industry perspective, the efficiency and accessibility of e-commerce has become a much more powerful sales tool.

This is especially true since the stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidance of the pandemic, which has parents and children held-up at home missing out on the fun parks, zoos, museums, and other forms of family entertainment.

And so, it shouldn’t be surprising that in 2020, toys sales were up… big time. 

While toy sales typically spike around the holidays, toy sales were up across the board all of last year. In fact, the toy industry grew 19% in the first three quarters of the year, according to NPD Group. Families, stuck at home, still wanted to spur their children’s creativity and curiosity, and they spent money on toys to do just that. 

So, what toys are parents buying to keep their kids (and maybe even themselves) busy? People are buying a lot of puzzles, plus on action figures, plush toys, sports equipment, building sets, and preschool products. For Lego alone, sales increased 14 percent in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, even as many stores closed around the world. 

The toys market is forecasted to exceed $120 billion in revenue by 2023. Here’s what investors should know about the industry. 

What Are the Trends in the Toy Industry?

The toy industry uptick is in large part thanks to the increased adoption of e-commerce. As a result of COVID-19, consumer preferences— even among older generations who tend to be slower to adopt new technologies— shifted from face-to-face to online. Three in four buyers and sellers now prefer digital options over in-person sales because of safety, speed, and convenience. In the third quarter of 2020 alone, e-commerce sales jumped 37.1 percent from the third quarter of 2019.

Tied to the rise in e-commerce and the greater demand for reduced waste, toy packaging is becoming less eye-grabbing and more sustainable.  After all, there is less need for toys to stand out on a toy store shelf these days. 

According to Nasdaq, in the first three quarters of 2020, leading toys included L.O.L. Surprise!, Barbie, Star Wars, Marvel Universe, Pokémon, Disney Frozen, Nerf, Hot Wheels, Little Tikes, and Paw Patrol.

Video games also performed well, with Nintendo and Activision Blizzard both reporting record sales. In just the holiday quarter of 2020, Nintendo sold more than 11.57 million Switch consoles, adding up to nearly 80 million consoles sold since the Switch’s 2017 launch. Consumer spending on video content is on the rise, in part thanks to virtual reality products, mobile gaming, and a rise in competition. 

Another trend is the rise in toy subscriptions services for kids. From educational toys to project-based crafts, more and more boxes of curated toy-products are arriving monthly via the mail for children. Many subscription-based toys (as will all toys) are increasingly personalized and STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) oriented. 

Another trend is that toys are becoming more diverse and geared towards encouraging inclusion. In 2020, Crayola released a new pack of crayons called “Colors of the World” to reflect the diversity of skin tones around the world. In 2020, Barbie also got a makeover, with a newly launched group of Barbie dolls that includes a Barbie with no hair and a prosthetic limb. Toy companies are moving more and more to celebrate differences, rather than ignore them. 

Why Invest in the Toy Industry?

Parents are spending more than ever on toys, in part because of “COVID-guilt.” Parents are willing to spend more as their kids miss out on experiences like birthday parties, as well as “normal” in-person school interaction and experiences with their peers. 

In other words, what might have been considered discretionary spending in a “normal” year now feels—to many parents— like necessary spending. 

According to the Children Toys Market 2021 Global Industry Research Report, “toys are the backbone for children to turn their mental processes such as imagination and thinking into behaviors. Children’s toys can develop athletic ability, train perception, stimulate imagination, evoke curiosity, and provide material conditions for children’s physical and mental development.” 

Many parents agree and as such, are willing to spend money on everything from pricey building sets to monthly project boxes to keep their children’s minds growing. 

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The information and data are as of the  March 2, 2021 (publish date) unless otherwise noted and subject to change. This blog is sponsored by Magnifi. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as individualized investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities tailored to your needs. This information covers investment and market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic or market conditions and should not be construed as investment research or advice. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. Although certain information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This content may not be reproduced or distributed to any person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Magnifi. As a technology company, Magnifi provides access to tools and will be compensated for providing such access. Magnifi does not provide broker-dealer or custodial services.