(October 2020)
President Trump has been very critical of China and the US’ relationship to Beijing over the last four years. He has almost single-handedly driven a tense trade war between the two countries. However, following almost four years of escalating stand-offs, something odd is happening—policy experts say that a Biden victory might actually make the US-China relationship even worse than it is with Trump. According to the top Asia official from the Obama years, “I think there is a broad recognition in the Democratic Party that Trump was largely accurate in diagnosing China’s predatory practices”. And according to a former Chinese trade negotiator, “If Biden is elected, I think this could be more dangerous for China, because he will work with allies to target China, whereas Trump is destroying U.S. alliances”. To that point, another commentator, a Chinese policy expert at Renmin University in Beijing says “Biden would make the hard lines more effective and more efficient”.
(Washington)
FINSUM + Magnifi: This is a unique policy insight that has so far received almost no notice from the media and markets. This likely means advisors need to make sure they take this risk into account in the near-term.
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