(September 2020)

Ask yourself what is really keeping market and economic expectations aloft (besides the Fed). Very quickly most will realize that it is the expectation that a COVID vaccine will be available sometime before the middle of next year, which would ensure a smooth recovery by allowing everything to “get back to normal”. Therefore, disruptions to that assumption can be very damaging, which market volatility around vaccine news has already proved. Well, big news has just come out on that front: the largest producer of vaccines has just said there will not be enough vaccines for everyone until 2024. The CEO of the Serum Institute, the largest producer of vaccines in the world, said that the vaccine will most likely be two-dose, meaning that 15 BN doses would be needed to protect the whole world. “I know the world wants to be optimistic on it . . . [but] I have not heard of anyone coming even close to that [level] right now”.

(New York)

FINSUM + Magnifi: This is pretty eye-opening news. This means it will likely take almost a billion doses just to get the US vaccinated, and we will be competing with every other country to get those doses. Given the credibility of these comments, this definitely throws doubt on the idea of a smooth vaccine-backed recovery.

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